Popular on EntSun
- Female Motorsports Sponsorship & Expansion; Acquisition Agreement of UAE-Based Sports Incubator by Online Lottery & Sports Game Provider: Lottery.com - 242
- WOA Entertainment Group Unveils Independent No.1's: Breakthrough Artists II —A Celebration of Indie Excellence - 221
- Experience Trembling Firsthand with the New AgeMan® Tremor Simulator - 220
- Edtech Startup Young Commanders Launches 'Visionaries Without Sight' Collection Celebrating Blind and Visually Impaired Historical Figures - 215
- IRF Builders Forum Brings Global Leaders to Washington, D.C. to Advance Religious Freedom Through Cooperative Engagement - 205
- BillBoards Inc. Hits the Road with God Bless America Tour and Reality Series Now Streaming on Tubi TV - 156
- Token-Operated Sake Service Opens at Tobu Nikko Station - 134
- Honoring Black History, Culture, and Community in Fall River - 131
- databahn Launches GenAI Sales Intelligence Platform to Revolutionize Fortune 500 and Global 2000 Account Research - 122
- Byrd Davis Alden & Henrichson Launches Independence Day Safe Ride Initiative with 500 Free Uber Credits - 117
Similar on EntSun
- Cover Girl Finalist Teisha Mechetti Questions Legitimacy of Inked Originals Competition, Demands Transparency
- Stuck Doing Math or Figuring Out Life's Numbers? Calculator.now Makes It Stupidly Simple
- Colbert Packaging Announces WBENC Recognition
- The World's Largest Green Economic Revolution Emerges as Nature, Tech, and Finance Converge
- Pyro Marketing Opens New Digital Marketing Company in Saint Petersburg to Power Growth for Fitness and Ecommerce Brands
- Dr. John Salerno of Salerno Wellness Introduces Their New Full Body Capsule for Advanced LED Light Therapy Patient Treatments
- Heartfelt Dreams Foundation Launches Campaign to Build CHD Hospital
- Adostics & Genmega Announce the Introduction of A-POD
- LIB and Nidec Rejoin Forces for Giant TH-0098 Temperature Humidity Test Chamber
- NASA Collaborative Agreement for Supply of Thin-Film Solar Tech for Orbital Application to Advance Development of Thin-Film PV Power Beaming: $ASTI
Pandemics and Forecasting: Seeing the Way Forward via the Taleb/Ioannidis Debate
EntSun News/10829303
BOSTON - EntSun -- The impact of COVID-19 clearly has serious implications for humanity, and the measures needed to fight the pandemic present a profound challenge to policy makers. The choices are grim. Lockdowns slow the spread of the virus and reduce the pandemic's death toll, but they come at the cost of severe economic consequences. Proceeding with "business as usual" keeps the economy rolling, but forces us to endure human suffering and loss of life on a scale that many feel is totally unacceptable. In a time where data is in abundance—though possibly not always fully representative or to be trusted—many have focused on analyzing this data to infer the characteristics of the pandemic, creating models aimed at forecasting its development while arguing about how such data and forecasts should be used as inputs to decision making.
In this context, it is important to debate and to make sure that points of discussion (and disagreement) eventually bring constructive outcomes that help steer us in a fruitful direction. Nassim Taleb and John Ioannidis, two renowned thinkers and academics, have provided opposing views on how to deal with the pandemic. Over the last few months they have been highly visible in the media, conveying messages that to many have appeared to be in conflict. At the core of the argument lies the very question of forecasting for crisis management in the case of a pandemic, based on the quality and value of the forecasts produced.
More on EntSun News
This question is of utmost importance with respect to how the current pandemic should be dealt with, as well as health crises that surely are lurking in the future. Whatever course we take will profoundly affect our societies and economies for years—and possibly decades—to come. We at the International Institute of Forecasting (IIF) and the International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) believe that a well-organized scientific debate between John Ioannidis and Nassim Taleb is the right approach to alert and inform relevant stakeholders, who can then better appraise their vision and recommendations about what needs to be done. We are fortunate that Taleb and Ioannidis have accepted our offer to debate, first by posting a blog post (link) and then writing a paper addressing each other's views, to be peer-reviewed and then published by the IJF. A number of coauthors joined them in that scientific debate.
After having carefully studied their blogs and initial papers, we can confirm that there is a lot to learn from their views, which are not always as far apart as they at first may seem. Unsurprisingly, each advocates using a rigorous scientific approach to inform decision making, based on an understanding of data and of the characteristics of the uncertainties involved. There are major differences, too. On the one hand, Nassim Taleb has clearly expressed that measures to stop the spread of the pandemic must be taken as soon as possible: instead of looking at data, it is the nature of a pandemic with a possibility of devastating human impact that should drive our decisions. On the other hand, John Ioannidis acknowledges the difficulty in having good data and of producing accurate forecasts, while believing that eventually any information that can be extracted from such data and forecasts should still be useful, e.g. to having targeted lockdowns (in space, time, and considering the varying risk for different segments of the population).
More on EntSun News
One certainty is that COVID-19 caught humanity off guard, and forced many decision makers to act rapidly and take strong measures under very high levels of uncertainty. As the pandemic continues to spread, two important actions must now occur. First, as more reliable information is becoming available, we need to stop the blame game and join forces on how to proceed. Second, we must bring together what we have learned from the current pandemic to help future generations face new and potentially more severe ones that epidemiologists believe are waiting in the wings. We hope that this initiative with Nassim Taleb and John Ioannidis will contribute toward guiding us to positive outcomes. Other efforts are underway, e.g. a complete special issue of the IJF and an open scientific debate at the IIF's annual International Symposium on Forecasting.
In this context, it is important to debate and to make sure that points of discussion (and disagreement) eventually bring constructive outcomes that help steer us in a fruitful direction. Nassim Taleb and John Ioannidis, two renowned thinkers and academics, have provided opposing views on how to deal with the pandemic. Over the last few months they have been highly visible in the media, conveying messages that to many have appeared to be in conflict. At the core of the argument lies the very question of forecasting for crisis management in the case of a pandemic, based on the quality and value of the forecasts produced.
More on EntSun News
- Stuck Doing Math or Figuring Out Life's Numbers? Calculator.now Makes It Stupidly Simple
- Colbert Packaging Announces WBENC Recognition
- DivX Empowers Media Enthusiasts with Free Expert Guides for Advanced MP4 Management
- Bay Street Yard to host "Love Island" finale watch party July 13
- Assent Expands Executive Team to Accelerate Global Growth & Innovation
This question is of utmost importance with respect to how the current pandemic should be dealt with, as well as health crises that surely are lurking in the future. Whatever course we take will profoundly affect our societies and economies for years—and possibly decades—to come. We at the International Institute of Forecasting (IIF) and the International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) believe that a well-organized scientific debate between John Ioannidis and Nassim Taleb is the right approach to alert and inform relevant stakeholders, who can then better appraise their vision and recommendations about what needs to be done. We are fortunate that Taleb and Ioannidis have accepted our offer to debate, first by posting a blog post (link) and then writing a paper addressing each other's views, to be peer-reviewed and then published by the IJF. A number of coauthors joined them in that scientific debate.
After having carefully studied their blogs and initial papers, we can confirm that there is a lot to learn from their views, which are not always as far apart as they at first may seem. Unsurprisingly, each advocates using a rigorous scientific approach to inform decision making, based on an understanding of data and of the characteristics of the uncertainties involved. There are major differences, too. On the one hand, Nassim Taleb has clearly expressed that measures to stop the spread of the pandemic must be taken as soon as possible: instead of looking at data, it is the nature of a pandemic with a possibility of devastating human impact that should drive our decisions. On the other hand, John Ioannidis acknowledges the difficulty in having good data and of producing accurate forecasts, while believing that eventually any information that can be extracted from such data and forecasts should still be useful, e.g. to having targeted lockdowns (in space, time, and considering the varying risk for different segments of the population).
More on EntSun News
- The World's Largest Green Economic Revolution Emerges as Nature, Tech, and Finance Converge
- Meet a Scientologist Captures Greece's Timeless Beauty with Videographer Lambros Malamas
- Vinnetwork Unveils Decentralized AI Platform with Vinnetwork(VIN) Token to Challenge Tech Giants' Data Monopoly
- Centennial Flyers to Become Colorado's First Launch Customer for All-Electric B23 Energic Aircraft
- Pyro Marketing Opens New Digital Marketing Company in Saint Petersburg to Power Growth for Fitness and Ecommerce Brands
One certainty is that COVID-19 caught humanity off guard, and forced many decision makers to act rapidly and take strong measures under very high levels of uncertainty. As the pandemic continues to spread, two important actions must now occur. First, as more reliable information is becoming available, we need to stop the blame game and join forces on how to proceed. Second, we must bring together what we have learned from the current pandemic to help future generations face new and potentially more severe ones that epidemiologists believe are waiting in the wings. We hope that this initiative with Nassim Taleb and John Ioannidis will contribute toward guiding us to positive outcomes. Other efforts are underway, e.g. a complete special issue of the IJF and an open scientific debate at the IIF's annual International Symposium on Forecasting.
Source: International Institute of Forecasters, Inc.
Filed Under: Business
0 Comments
Latest on EntSun News
- BIYA Forecasts 2025 Surge with ¥300M ($41.8 M USD) in Revenue and ¥25M Profit from Cloud Based HR Solutions: Baiya Intl. Group (N A S D A Q: BIYA)
- Paul E. Saperstein Co. Announces Geographic Expansion of Auction Services
- Florida Broker Bent Danholm Featured in the Daily Mail's U.S. Real Estate Coverage
- Robin Launches Legal Intelligence Platform to solve intelligence gap in Fortune 500 legal teams
- Melissa B. Releases Digitally Independent: Empowering Music Artists with AI and Brand Strategy
- Mental: Elderly Abuse a Documentary
- Consumer Accountability Alliance Issues Formal Notice Alleging Proximate Liability for Medical Harm
- Rising to New Heights in the Mile High City with Destination: Scientology, Denver
- The City's Largest and Most Elegant Dinner Party Returns on September 13, 2025
- Utah Metal Fabricator Titan Forge Builds Momentum with Custom Steel Projects and Spiral Staircases
- Jason Koch: Pioneering the Future of Real Estate Development in New Jersey
- Voting Opens Tonight for the 2025 Spin Awards Honoring Excellence in Christian Gospel Radio
- Introducing LK Blue: The Cool-Girl Denim Brand That's Redefining LA Style Launches E-Commerce
- Bach and Beyond: Cellists Return to the Beach for 2nd Annual Bethany Beach Cellofest
- NR7 Miner launches zero-cost USDT cloud mining service: daily stable income + referral rewards for double profit
- "The Grateful Dead — 60 Years in San Francisco" - Pantheon Media Launches New Podcast Series and Interactive "Hit Replay" App
- Deaths Spur Closures, but Troubled Teen Camps Must Be Banned, CCHR Warns
- Palmer Lake Wine Festival To Build Bridges in Small Mountain Community, Highlight Local Businesses
- SacraPod Suites Unveils AI-Powered 'Work + Rest' Smart Hospitality Model for Retrofitting Underused Motels Across the U.S
- From Real Estate to Reel Power: H.L Woods Carves His Legacy as a Cutting-Edge Visionary Filmmaker