New Economic Study Finds Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern Merger Could Generate Up to $5.8 Billion

WASHINGTON - EntSun -- A new economic study by William Michael Cunningham, economist and founder of Creative Investment Research, finds that the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern railroad merger could generate $4.2 billion to $5.8 billion annually in combined economic, environmental and public health benefits, including significant improvements for communities disproportionately affected by transportation-related pollution.

The study, Socio-Economic Benefits of the Proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern Freight Merger, provides an expanded evaluation of the merger's potential public-interest benefits, examining freight efficiency, carbon emissions, diesel pollution, premature mortality and environmental equity.

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The analysis builds on company projections that the merger could shift approximately 2.1 million truckloads annually from highways to rail, reduce carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 3.8 million metric tons and generate $3.5 billion in annual shipper savings.

Creative Investment Research estimates additional annual benefits of:

• $500 million to $1.6 billion in public health improvements from reduced diesel emissions.
• $194 million to $722 million in avoided climate damages.
• Approximately 94 premature deaths prevented annually, with a modeled range of 47 to 141.
• $35.8 billion to $49.7 billion in combined benefits over ten years, expressed in present-value terms using a 3% discount rate.

"This merger should be evaluated not only by what it may save shippers, but by what it could mean for families living and working near major freight corridors," said Cunningham. "Cleaner air, fewer heavy trucks on local roads and lower exposure to diesel emissions have real economic value. Those gains could be especially important for Black, minority and lower-income communities that face disproportionate transportation-related environmental burdens."

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The study identifies Chicago as one example of potential localized benefits. A 25% to 50% reduction in approximately one million annual drayage shipments could eliminate 250,000 to 500,000 local truck trips, reducing congestion, noise and diesel exposure.

Cunningham emphasized that the estimates represent potential benefits rather than guaranteed outcomes. Realizing these gains requires effective implementation, independent monitoring and community-level environmental assessments.

"The public-interest test should require that these projected benefits are documented, delivered and shared," Cunningham added.

The findings suggest that regulators evaluating major transportation mergers should consider measurable health and environmental benefits alongside traditional competition, pricing and operational concerns.