Tom Phillips' 2026 Housing Market Forecast: What You Need to Know

SAN ANTONIO - EntSun -- Where Texas Home Prices are Headed in 2026

If you're sitting around waiting for Texas home prices to "crash," go ahead and grab a snack, you're going to be waiting a while. Every major forecast for 2026 points to the same story: Texas home prices are expected to rise, just at a slower, healthier pace.

Here's the short, no-nonsense breakdown for Texas buyers and sellers.

What the Experts Say About 2026

NAR's Outlook

The National Association of REALTORS® expects:

• Home prices rising nationally by about 4% in 2026
• Sales jumping roughly 14%
• Mortgage rates drifting toward 6%

Texas typically outperforms national averages during growth periods thanks to job creation and population inflow—so a 3%–5% appreciation range is realistic for many Texas metros.

Inman's Take

Inman's reporting shows:

• No national crash, just slow growth
• Some overheated markets may flatten, but Texas is less vulnerable than coastal states

Texas has three advantages other states don't:

1.A constant pipeline of jobs (energy, tech, medical, defense)

2.Lower cost of living than major coastal markets

3.Enough land to keep building—though not fast enough to meet demand

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Put that together, and Texas remains on solid footing going into 2026.

Other Forecasts

Economists surveyed by Fannie Mae project 2%–4% price growth nationally in 2026.
Texas markets—especially San Antonio, Austin suburbs, and DFW—likely land near the top of that range thanks to ongoing in-migration.

Texas Trends Behind the Forecast

1. Strong Job Growth = Strong Housing Demand

Texas continues to add jobs faster than the national average. More jobs = more people moving here = upward pressure on home prices.

2. Inventory Is Rising, But Not Fast Enough

Builders are working overtime, but with population growth still surging, supply continues to lag demand—especially in entry-level price ranges.

3. Mortgage Rates Easing Will Stir the Pot

As rates slide closer to 6%, we'll see:

• More Texas homeowners finally selling
• More buyers jumping back in
• A busier, more balanced market

This shift keeps prices climbing but prevents runaway appreciation.

What This Means for Texas Buyers

• A "wait for the crash" strategy isn't likely to pay off.
• Prices probably won't skyrocket, but they're not heading down either.
• If a home fits your payment and long-term plans, 2026 is shaping up to be a solid window.

What This Means for Texas Sellers

• 2026 should be friendlier than the past couple of years.
• You'll have more buyers, but pricing still matters—this isn't 2021.
• Well-priced homes in good condition will move quickly.

Texas Bottom Line for 2026

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Expect:

• Modest price growth (3%–5% in many Texas markets)
• More inventory and more competition
• A more balanced, normal Texas market—finally

It's not a boom, not a bust. Just a stable, steady Texas housing market with room for smart moves on both sides.

How to Interpret chart on figure 11 above:

• -The FHFA index for Texas is indexed to 100 in 1980 (Q1) and tracks average home price changes over time.  
• -As of Q2 2025, Texas's index stood at ≈ 528.22.  
• -This means that since 1980, average home prices in Texas have risen roughly 5.3× (i.e., 528/100) in nominal terms.
• -The chart shows the long-term upward trend (steady growth), the run-up during the 2000s, and the post-pandemic surge.

Why This Matters for the 2026 Forecast

• -Because Texas prices are already very elevated historically, expecting double-digit gains in 2026 is unrealistic.
• -Most of the appreciation has already happened; the next phase is modest growth or stabilization, not another boom.

The takeaway: If you're BUYING, you're not "waiting for the crash" — you're waiting for good value. If you're SELLING, you'll get movement—but you'll need to price smart.